Mike Rogers claims he’s ahead by 7 percent on ballots returned so far ‘by our models’
Candidates love to cite internal numbers when public polls don't flatter them, but seven percent is a specific figure to throw around. Rogers is betting that his campaign's models capture something the survey outfits miss, namely which voters are actually turning in ballots and how those voters lean. That's a real thing in a state with heavy early voting, and campaigns do track their own supporters returning mail ballots more precisely than any pollster can.
The trouble is we can't verify his math. Internal models depend on assumptions about who counts as a likely Rogers voter and how the early-returned universe breaks down, and those assumptions are exactly what a campaign would want to shape. So the claim tells us less about the actual numbers and more about the campaign's confidence and its need to talk up momentum.
I'd want to see the county-level early return data, or at least the partisan breakdown from the secretary of state's office. In a race this close, whoever is telling the truth about early returns could be the one who wins on election night. Until then, Rogers's seven points is an unverified claim, and the polls remain the only public yardstick we have.