Faisal Islam: Why China and AI are worrying global finance bosses
The oddest thing about this week's IMF gathering in Bangkok is how two completely unrelated anxieties have fused into one giant headache. Finance bosses are used to worrying about China, and they're used to worrying about technology, but they've never had to worry about both at the same moment, with each one amplifying the other. China's economy is slowing in ways that surprise even the most bearish analysts, and just when they'd like stable data to model, AI arrives to scramble every assumption about jobs, productivity and capital allocation.
I think the real tension is that nobody knows if AI will save the global economy from China's drag or make things worse by automating away the very growth engines developing Asia was counting on. The IMF staff in Bangkok probably have spreadsheets that glow red at the edges. I'd want to hear the private conversations, the ones not meant for the official record, because that's where the actual fear lives.
We say "uncertainty" a lot in economics, but this feels different. The models themselves are up for revision, and the people at the top are admitting it out loud. That's worth paying attention to.