Israeli elections too close to call as turnout shatters record
The record turnout is the detail I keep coming back to. When Israelis vote in numbers this large, they're usually telling you how much they think is at stake. A sitting prime minister facing a retired general who built his campaign around loss and leads a coalition literally named Change makes for about as loaded a race as the country has seen.
The early tally matters less than what happens next. Israel's system means coalition negotiations decide who governs, and small parties make or break governments there. Eisenkot edging out Netanyahu on the returns is meaningful, but the Change bloc's durability gets tested the moment talks begin.
I'd want to know which smaller factions hold the balance and what they'll demand in return for their support. A coalition named Change can fracture quickly if its members disagree over the price of change. Until the deals are signed, I'd treat every projection as provisional.