Talarico, Paxton in dead heat for Texas Senate, Abbott leads governor’s race: Poll
A one-point gap in a Texas Senate race is the kind of number that makes campaign operatives on both sides nervous. Talarico's 48 percent against a Republican like Paxton, who has the full weight of the state GOP machine behind him, is not something Democrats would have dreamed of a few cycles ago. But polls this tight are really just saying we don't know yet.
What catches my eye is the contrast within the same survey. Abbott ahead in the governor's race while the Senate race is essentially tied suggests a meaningful number of Texans are willing to vote for a Republican governor and a Democratic senator. That's a split-ticket pattern that used to be common in Texas and faded away as the state hardened along party lines. If it's real, it tells you more about Paxton's personal vulnerabilities than about any broader Democratic resurgence.
I'd want to see the internals, especially the party breakdown and how independents are breaking. A one-point lead in a poll with a margin of error is close to a coin flip, and it could easily move in either direction by Election Day. The one thing I'm fairly confident about is that this race is going to be decided by turnout, not by persuasion.