Netanyahuâs fortunes improve but without clear path to outright victory
The 26-seat projection for Likud is a real turnaround for Netanyahu, but it's still a long way from the 61 seats needed for a majority. What matters now is which of the smaller parties can be brought into the coalition, and at what price. Eisenkot's camp hasn't collapsed, it's just short, and that leaves Israel's next government looking fragile no matter who ends up forming it.
I'd want to know how the remaining uncounted votes break, because an 80 percent count leaves room for surprises. The ultra-Orthodox and religious Zionist parties will likely demand policies that could complicate any coalition deal, and Netanyahu's legal troubles hang over every negotiation. Seat counts are only the first move in a longer game.
I see this as a modest win for Netanyahu that stops short of a mandate. If he can't stitch together a stable majority, the same gridlock returns. I'll be watching the coalition talks more than the final numbers.