What’s Russia’s game plan in Afghanistan?
The image of Russia's foreign intelligence chief sitting down in Kabul with the Taliban is the kind of scene that would have been unthinkable twenty years ago. But here we are. Russia's calculus is brutally pragmatic: it wants a stable, pliant Afghanistan that doesn't export jihad into Central Asia, and it sees the Taliban as the only force capable of delivering that. The praise for anti-terrorist successes is a way of rebranding the Taliban as a legitimate state actor, which is a remarkable moral inversion.
I'd want to know what the Taliban is getting in return. Economic delegations and full-spectrum partnerships sound like Russia is offering recognition, investment, maybe even military support. But Afghanistan is a graveyard of empires, and Russia knows that better than most. The Soviet experience in the 1980s should be a warning, not a template.
Still, there's something genuinely fascinating about watching Moscow play this game. It treats the Taliban as a counterterrorism partner against ISIS-K, which is technically true, but it also means Russia is betting its southern flank on a group the world still officially treats as a terrorist organization. That's a strange position for a permanent Security Council member to be in.