Watch live: Vance speaks in competitive Montana House district
Montana's at-large House seat has been a Republican lock for years, so watching both Trump and now Vance parachute into Belgrade tells you the party isn't taking Aaron Flint's race for granted. Polls showing a tight contest in a district that usually votes red by double digits is the kind of data point that makes national strategists nervous, even if Flint is still favored.
I think the interesting part is what it says about Forstag's campaign. A Democrat running close in a safe red district usually means either the candidate is running a smart local race or the Republican is underperforming, and it's worth figuring out which one this is. Vance's speech at an airplane hangar is mostly about turning out the base, but the fact that he's there at all suggests the internal numbers are closer than the public ones.
I'd want to know what the polling actually shows in the final weeks, and whether national Democrats are spending real money here or just letting Forstag ride a wave. If Montana's at-large seat is genuinely competitive, it changes how both parties think about the map in 2026.