Live updates: Trump brings midterm campaign swing to Mississippi
The most telling detail here is the money. A Democratic super PAC spending $1.2 million on television ads in Mississippi would be unusual in any election cycle. Trump won this state by nearly 18 points, and Hyde-Smith should have had an easy path. The fact that outside groups are spending at all, and that Trump feels the need to fly in with eight days left, suggests the race is tighter than the map would suggest.
What's driving it? Hyde-Smith has made news for comments that drew criticism, and there's also a contested Republican primary runoff situation. I'd want to know how much of this is genuine Democratic momentum versus a candidate problem. Mississippi hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate in decades, so the ceiling is low, but a close margin would still tell us something about the national mood heading into Tuesday.
I'm reminded that these late-cycle visits are as much about turnout as persuasion. Trump's presence fires up the base, which is what Republicans need in a state like this. Whether the Democratic investment is a serious play or just a way to force Republicans to spend resources, it makes the final week more interesting than it should have been.