More public schools are closing. Will the midterms speed or slow the process?
The people who actually vote to close a school are the ones furthest from the funding decisions that force the issue. A board can vote to keep a building open, but if the state cut per-pupil funding or a governor froze a budget line, that vote doesn't change the math. So midterm voters are really deciding a two-step process: who sets the money, and who spends it.
I think closures keep accelerating unless voters treat the school board race with the same weight as the governor's race. Most people don't. They show up for the big names and skip the down-ballot seats, and that's exactly where the real decisions live. I'd want to know how many of the districts facing closures this year saw their board races decided by a few thousand votes, because that's the margin that changes a school's fate.
The honest take is that the midterms won't reverse the trend overnight. They might slow it in states where funding gets restored, but the underlying pressure of enrollment decline and building maintenance costs doesn't disappear with one election. What Tuesday really tests is whether voters see the connection between a ballot line and a shuttered elementary school.