Chris Sununu: âTexas is in trouble for Republicansâ
Sununu calling Texas trouble for Republicans is worth paying attention to, if only because he's usually the type of governor who reads the room before he speaks. His prediction that Ken Paxton loses to James Talarico is a striking call, since Texas has been a reliably red state in statewide races for a generation. A loss there would sting a party that treats the Lone Star State as a lock.
What I find interesting is the gap between Sununu's local gloom and his national optimism. He seems to be saying the party can absorb a Texas loss while still winning the bigger map, which is a plausible read and also a convenient one. I'd want to know what data he's looking at, because early voting numbers and internal polls would tell us far more than a pundit's hunch.
If Paxton does lose, it will be a story about candidate quality as much as national trends. Texas Republicans have won statewide for so long that a single loss would force some hard questions about where the party's coalition is actually headed. If he wins, Sununu's warning will be forgotten by Tuesday night. Either way, the margin is the number to watch.