State of the climate: 2026 likely to tie with 2024 as the warmest year on record
It's remarkable, and not in a good way, that a year can be on pace to tie the hottest year ever recorded and the main question is whether it will take first place by a hair. With three-quarters of 2026 behind us, the outcome is essentially settled: warmest or second-warmest, take your pick. The planet's fever is refusing to break, even as governments keep promising to bring it down.
I think this matters because these records stop being abstract when they show up as floods, fires and heat waves in our own neighborhoods. I'd want to know how much of this year's heat comes from the long-term buildup of greenhouse gases and how much from natural variability like El Niño, because the answer tells us whether we're hitting the brakes at all. My honest read is that we're not, and the longer we treat each record as a surprise, the harder the landing gets.