Democrats lead Republicans by 37 points among likely young voters: Survey
The 37-point margin among certain voters is the number that jumps out, but the gap between that figure and the 21-point lead among all young registered voters tells the real story. There's a meaningful slice of young people who lean Democratic but haven't fully committed to showing up. That's the difference between a wave and a ripple.
I think the most useful way to read this poll is as a turnout question rather than a popularity question. Democrats have spent years assuming young voters are their natural constituency, and by and large that's true. But the party's struggles with this demographic in recent cycles have less to do with persuasion and more to do with mobilization. If Democrats can convert some of those "likely but not certain" voters into actual ballots, the 37-point margin becomes the baseline. If they can't, the 21-point advantage among all young voters is closer to what they'll actually get.
I'd want to know how these numbers break down by state and district, since a national 21-point edge doesn't mean much in a handful of competitive seats where the margins are tight. National polls capture mood. Local organizing captures elections.