Trump’s midterm reckoning: Why the Republican Party is facing a Senate wipeout
A year ago, the conventional wisdom was that the Senate map simply didn't favor Democrats. Now the conversation has flipped so completely that Republicans are defending seats they assumed were safe, and the shift is being laid at Trump's door. That reversal is the real story, more than any single poll or candidate gaffe.
I think the party put itself in this position. The primaries elevated candidates who fit Trump's mold, and in a general election that tends to alienate the suburban voters the GOP needs. But I'd also want to know how much of this is about Trump specifically and how much is just the normal drag of a president's party in a midterm. The economy, inflation, and the usual historical patterns all play a role, and it's easy to over-credit one man's influence.
Where I land is somewhere in the middle. The doubt about the Senate majority is a rebuke, sure, but it's a rebuke of a party that chose its battles poorly. I'd want to see how the next few months play out before declaring a wipeout inevitable.