Early voting surges in battleground states as Democrats outpace GOP gains
More than 1.2 million North Carolinians have already voted, and that is a genuinely striking number for a midterm. It is easy to see why Democrats feel hopeful: if those are mostly their voters, the math gets harder for Republicans before Election Day even arrives. But I have learned to be careful with early voting headlines, because they measure who has voted, not who will win. A surge can also reflect shifting habits, with more people simply choosing the convenience of mail or in-person early voting.
What I would want to know next is the party breakdown of those ballots, and how the numbers compare with the same point in 2020, not just 2022. That would tell us whether this is a Democratic wave or a broader change in how everyone votes. Either way, the fact that turnout is up this much suggests the stakes feel high to voters, and that is usually a good thing for democracy, whatever the result.