Crowley holds 7-point lead over Tiffany in new Wisconsin gubernatorial poll
A seven-point lead with the campaign entering its final stretch is a genuinely comfortable spot, but Wisconsin voters have a long history of making pollsters look foolish. Crowley's two-point bump from last month is real movement, though it's fair to ask whether that's genuine enthusiasm or just noise within the survey's margin of error.
What catches my attention is the source. Marquette's polling operation has a strong track record in this state, so when it shows a lead this size, it's worth taking seriously. If Tiffany wants to close the gap, he'll need to win back the suburban voters who have drifted from the GOP in recent cycles. I'd want to see the crosstabs on independents and on how each candidate is rated on the economy, since that tends to be the deciding issue in Wisconsin elections.
I don't think the race is over by any means. But Crowley has to like where he stands, and the burden is now squarely on Tiffany to change the trajectory. That's a harder ask when the fundamentals appear to be moving in the other direction.